Sep 22, 2008
What can be done to stop the free-fall in classifieds?
Steve Outing, of E&P and, more recently, Reinventing Classifieds, is asking for your help, and he’s offering $500 as an incentive:
WHAT CAN THE NEWSPAPER INDUSTRY DO TO 1) BRING BACK CLASSIFIEDS CUSTOMERS (BUYERS AND SELLERS) THAT HAVE BEEN LOST TO ONLINE COMPETITORS, 2) ATTRACT NEW CUSTOMERS WHO HAVE NOT USED NEWSPAPER CLASSIFIEDS BEFORE, AND 3) RETAIN ITS REMAINING CLASSIFIEDS CUSTOMERS?
Good questions.
But to back up a little, Step One in solving any crisis it to define the crisis. We’ve all seen the numbers, watched them slip year-over-year. But sometimes the numbers aren’t enough. You need a picture. Here’s what the biggest slice of the classified picture, help-wanted, looks like in 2008:
(2008 estimated based on first-half performance. All data from NAA.)
You don’t have to be a draftsman or Photoshop guru to visualize that trend line’s forward direction if nothing changes. It hits zero in mid-2010.
Zero.
You can look at the chart two ways. The first, is that we’ve got $2.6 billion at risk that we have to do everything in our power to save. That’s been the approach of the newspaper business so far. We said the same thing when we had $5.1 billion at risk. And $4.7 billion. And $3.8 billion. And still the slide continues.
Or, we could take another approach. We could say that in 2011 dollars, we have nothing at risk. Because if we don’t do something dramatic, that’s exactly what we’ll have. Nothing.
Next: a modest proposal to help stem the tide and relieve Steve of his $500.
Hint for where this is going: Look at the chart above and remember that Craig Newmark started his expansion in 2000.
Sep 6, 2008
The Glengarry Glen Ross revenue solution
On the subject of finding new revenue streams, Lucas Grindley has an interesting take that argues the old model of charging advertisers up-front for space has it backwards:
Generating an audience first requires attracting advertisers. It’s NOT a chicken and egg situation. Luring advertisers is more important than users.
To get on the advertiser’s list, posting an ad absolutely must be free. Otherwise, you’re asking the employer to take a risk and abandon one of their old standbys.
If it’s free to post an ad, then all you have to do next is convince the potential advertiser it’s worth their time to fill out an online form. Here’s a sure-fire way to persuade them.
Print the ad.
That’s right. After completing the online form, the reader’s ad will appear in the newspaper for free.
It’s really not as odd as it sounds. To protect their market share, newspapers around the country already give readers free ads for merchandise under a certain dollar amount. But I’m saying let all ads appear in print for free.
You can read the whole piece here. Stay until the end. It’s worth it.
Sep 4, 2008
Inflation-adjusted newspaper revenues approaching 1982 levels
According to The Newsosaur, Alan Mutter, the first-half 2008 newspaper revenue details, released by the Newspaper Association of America, represent the worst numbers in a dozen years.
But that’s comparing 1996 dollars to 2008 dollars. If you look at print revenue performance in constant 2008 dollars, the industry hasn’t seen numbers this grim since 1982 (click to see the chart in full size):
What’s really bracing about that chart is how the rate of decline clearly accelerates in the past few years.
This chart does not include online revenue, which NAA has tracked since 2003.
(Obligatory warning: I was an English major in college, not a stats geek. This constant-dollar hack was made with simple web tools and the original data from the NAA. If this is way off, please let me know.)
Me, elsewhere